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Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Leaning YES, 72% confidence. Our estimate: 17.8% vs market 7.3% (edge: +10.5 pts).
Key reasons
- Historical base rate for this event type supports higher probability
- Market appears to be underpricing a plausible outcome
- Whale-level volume signals potential institutional conviction
What could break this thesis
- Thin volume means the price is easily moved by a few participants
- Market may not yet reflect latest available information
- Labour's heavy defeats in the May 7-8, 2026 local elections—losing control of 25 English councils and underperforming in Wales—have fueled t…
What this analysis does not cover
This analysis does not account for breaking news, regulatory changes, or insider information that may emerge after publication.
Frequently asked questions
Should I bet on Starmer out by May 15, 2026??
Based on our analysis, we lean YES with 72% confidence, but this is a research signal, not financial advice.
What does edge mean for Starmer out by May 15, 2026??
Edge (+10.5 pts) is the gap between our probability estimate and the market price. Positive edge on YES means the market may be underpricing this outcome.
How accurate is this prediction?
Check our track record at /accuracy for live Brier scores and calibration data.
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· Track record
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