Prediction Market Research

Markets get
prices wrong. We notice.

EdgeVisor helps you decide faster, understand why the market looks wrong, verify the trust boundary, and only act when the setup is actually usable.

Live example right now ↓
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markets analyzed
picks today
scans every 30s
Weather lab paper-stage research
Brier score
accuracy (180d)
Resolved case EdgeVisor flagged the Iran sanctions market at 8¢ YES. The market resolved YES — a +$1,150 return on $100 for anyone who acted on the signal.
How it works

From market price to research thesis in 3 steps

No black box. Here's a real example using an Iran sanctions market.

We spot the anomaly

Every 30 seconds we scan 100 top Polymarket markets. We found: "Will US forces enter Iran by April 30?" priced at 8¢ YES. That means the crowd thinks only 8% chance.

Market priceYES 8¢
Volume 24h$3.5M
StatusActive market

5 analysts weigh in

Five independent models analyze the same market from different angles. Each gives a probability. We take the weighted average.

Base rate (history)22%
Liquidity signalthin → lean up
Cross-source consensus19%
Our consensus~24%
Market price
8%
Base rate
22%
Cross-source consensus
19%
Liquidity tilt
+2pp
Our consensus
24%

Five lenses each give a probability. We weight them by recent calibration, compare with the market, and surface the gap.

You see why, you decide

When the gap looks meaningful and the supporting context is coherent, we surface the market with the bull and bear case. The final call is always yours.

Market says8%
We say24%
Edge+16% -> PICK
$100 at 8¢ YES →+$1,150 if correct
Application Layer — Live Examples

Current picks

Markets where the structured estimate differs meaningfully from the current price. Updated continuously.

Live data
Hypothetical · Last 180 days
If you had followed every EdgeVisor signal on a virtual $1,000 portfolio:
Calculating from resolved signals…

Equal-weight backtest: $1,000 split evenly across resolved signals, average payout 2.5×. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.

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Trust Layer — Live Proof

We measure accuracy. Here's the proof.

Not promises — verified outcomes tracked over time with Brier scoring.

Brier Score (lower = better)
Accuracy (180d)
Predictions resolved
Market categories
Full track record →
Pricing

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Interpretive Layer — FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Clear answers. No marketing fluff.

EdgeVisor is a research tool for prediction markets — not a trading bot. It scans Polymarket every 30 seconds with multiple analytical lenses, surfaces markets where the price may be wrong, and shows you why. You decide whether to act; EdgeVisor never places trades and never manages funds.
By comparing the current market price against its own structured estimate, external reference venues, and evidence context. When the gap is meaningful and the supporting signals are coherent, the market is surfaced for review with a bull case, a bear case, and the conditions that would kill the thesis.
Yes. Every resolved outcome is logged, calibration is tracked per category, and the internal weighting of analytical lenses is adjusted as some signals prove more or less reliable. The system does not rely on a fixed mix forever.
Liquid Polymarket markets — the top markets by 24h volume across politics, macro, sports, crypto, and science, with cross-checks from related venues when useful. Coverage depth varies with how much evidence and market context is available per category.
Two metrics: Brier Score and Win Rate. Brier Score = (predicted probability − actual outcome)² — lower is better: 0 = perfect, 0.25 = random coin flip. Win Rate = percentage of picks where the recommended direction (YES/NO) was correct. Every prediction is logged at issue time with market price, our estimate, and confidence; resolved outcomes update both metrics per category, so you can see where EdgeVisor is calibrated and where it is not.
No — EdgeVisor is research, not advice. It surfaces markets where the price may be wrong and gives you a structured read (bull case, bear case, what kills the trade), but the final decision is always yours. EdgeVisor does not place trades, does not manage funds, and is not a licensed financial advisor. Prediction market trading involves real financial risk.
Sign up free on the dashboard. When tier limits are enforced, Free matches the pricing table and Pro unlocks the full pick list and track record. Stripe checkout for Pro may stay in waitlist mode — accounts can be upgraded manually on request. Operators with the dashboard API key keep full access; tier enforcement can be turned off entirely during early rollout.